Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Implications to Sino-Japanese Relations after the Earthquake

Firstly, apologies for the long absence, I have been rather busy lately and could not muster the will to blog. This post is an article I came across in the papers which I would like to share with you all. It’s an interesting theory on how the earthquake will affect Sino-Japanese Relations. There are two camps to this theory; the opportunity theory and the crisis theory. Let’s begin with the “Opportunity Theory”. 

This camp believes that with the massive destruction to the Japanese economy, Japan will require large amount of steel and other building materials to rebuild, giving China the opportunity to provide the surge in demand for its goods. With food produce being affected by radiation, confidence in Japanese food will decline along with its quality on to the lines with Chinese goods. As a result, this will give China the “level-playing” field that it has been dreaming of.  In addition, international bankers will leave Tokyo for Shanghai and Hong Kong due to radiation fears, the two cities will thus replace Tokyo as the financial centres in Asia.

In the diplomatic arena, Japan will be occupied with reconstruction leaving China to do what it wants in the East China Sea. Through massive and proactive assistance to Japan, China will no doubt increase its reputation within the Japanese public while further pushing for Japanese corporations to move their operations to China. With the combination of assisting Japan with its reconstruction and increasing its reputation amongst its neighbours and the prospect of making the Chinese Yuan the East Asian currency, East Asia can be united but with China as the head rather than the historically assumed Japan. 

The “Crisis Camp” on the other hand, feels that it will push Japan further into America’s arms reflecting the post war construction period. Any opportunities mentioned above will only benefit those of the United States and its allies. This camp also believes nationalism will fuel the withdrawal of funds from China to rebuild its own country thus slowing down economic co-operations between the two nations. 

With the US helping Japan to rebuild, the US will have unrivalled access to the Seas along China’s coast thus obstructing any efforts for sovereignty claims in the East China Sea by China. With nuclear power under debate, Japan will further push for its own claims in the disputed areas in hope of developing its oil and gas fields.  

Regardless of how it will all turn out, when Japanese scholars were asked what they feel about these two theories, their response was: “we have more important things to worry about now”.

Referring article: http://specials.mingpao.com/cfm/News.cfm?SpecialsID=242&Page=1&News=7deeab838655002bdffc203da603002bf7ec1b3b5f42003bf7d50a1f48a20037